Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke Published: 2018
Overview
Annie Duke, a former professional poker champion, applies insights from poker to improve decision-making in everyday life. The core premise is that most decisions resemble poker more than chess—we must choose with incomplete information while accepting uncertainty.
Key Ideas
Life is Poker, Not Chess
Unlike chess where all information is visible, real-world decisions involve hidden information and luck. We must make choices based on probabilities rather than certainties. Embracing this uncertainty leads to better decisions.
Resulting: The Dangerous Habit
We tend to judge decision quality by outcomes rather than the decision process itself. A good decision can lead to a bad outcome due to luck, and vice versa. Duke calls this “resulting”—equating results with decision quality—and argues it prevents learning from experience.
Thinking in Bets
Frame decisions as bets with probabilities attached. Instead of “I’m certain this will work,” think “I’m 70% confident this approach will succeed.” This mental shift:
- Acknowledges uncertainty explicitly
- Prevents overconfidence
- Enables better calibration of beliefs
- Facilitates more honest self-assessment
Motivated Reasoning and Bias
Our beliefs act as conclusions we’ve already drawn, and we defend them rather than test them. To counteract this:
- Actively seek out disconfirming evidence
- Separate beliefs from identity
- Update beliefs as new information emerges
- Reward accuracy over being right
Truth-Seeking Groups
Surround yourself with people committed to truth-seeking rather than cheerleading. Effective groups:
- Challenge ideas constructively
- Reward accuracy and updating beliefs
- Create psychological safety for admitting uncertainty
- Establish ground rules for productive disagreement
Mental Time Travel
Use prospective hindsight techniques:
- Premortem: Before a decision, imagine it failed and identify why
- Backcasting: Imagine success and work backward to identify the path
- 10-10-10: Consider how you’ll feel about this decision in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years
These techniques combat present bias and improve long-term thinking.
Practical Applications
- Express uncertainty quantitatively: Attach percentages to beliefs and predictions
- Separate luck from skill: When analyzing outcomes, ask what was within your control
- Build feedback loops: Track predictions to improve calibration
- Seek disagreement: Actively recruit dissenting viewpoints
- Focus on process: Evaluate decisions based on the information available at the time
Conclusion
Better decisions come from embracing uncertainty, separating outcomes from decision quality, and creating environments that reward truth-seeking over ego protection. By thinking in bets, we can become more accurate, adaptable, and effective decision-makers.