Business & Finance Update - November 29, 2025

Business & Finance Update - November 29, 2025

Key Insights for Tech Professionals

1. Tech Stock Rotation: AI Infrastructure vs. Application Layer

Analysis: The market is showing a significant rotation from AI application companies to AI infrastructure providers. Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) are up 8% and 6% respectively this week, while several AI software companies that surged in early 2025 are down 10-15%. The driver appears to be recognition that infrastructure providers (chips, cloud compute, networking) have more defensible moats and clearer paths to profitability than many application-layer companies.

Investment bank analysis suggests that of the 200+ AI startups that went public or SPAC’d in the last 18 months, fewer than 15% have established sustainable competitive advantages. Meanwhile, demand for AI compute infrastructure continues to outpace supply, creating a multi-year tailwind for hardware and cloud providers.

Actionable Takeaway: For tech employees with equity compensation, this suggests rebalancing toward infrastructure plays if you’re overweight on AI application companies. For those building products, it reinforces the importance of establishing defensible moats beyond “we use AI”—think network effects, data advantages, or vertical integration. If you’re considering startup offers, scrutinize whether the company is building infrastructure/picks-and-shovels or just applying existing AI to a new domain.

2. Rising Interest Rates Impact on Tech Valuations

Analysis: The Federal Reserve has indicated it will hold interest rates at current levels (5.25-5.5%) through at least Q2 2026, citing persistent inflation in services. This continues to pressure high-multiple tech stocks, particularly unprofitable growth companies. The relationship is straightforward: higher discount rates reduce the present value of future earnings, and companies trading at 10x+ revenue multiples are most affected.

We’re seeing a clear bifurcation: profitable tech companies with strong cash flow (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta) are holding valuations, while pre-profit SaaS and consumer tech companies have seen 30-40% valuation compression over the past quarter. Private market valuations are following suit, with down rounds becoming more common.

Actionable Takeaway: If you’re holding unvested stock options at a pre-IPO startup, understand that your strike price from 2023-2024 may be above current fair market value. Exercise decisions should factor in this new reality. For investment decisions, prioritize companies with clear paths to profitability and strong free cash flow generation. If you’re negotiating compensation, cash and RSUs in public companies may be more valuable than options in late-stage private companies.

3. India Tech Sector Growth Creates New Investment Opportunities

Analysis: With India now the world’s third-largest economy, its tech sector is attracting unprecedented capital. The country is seeing explosive growth in digital payments (UPI processing 12B+ transactions monthly), e-commerce, and SaaS companies serving global markets. Indian SaaS companies are now generating over $30B in annual revenue, up from $12B in 2022.

Several Indian tech companies are planning US listings in 2026, and early-stage venture funding has increased 60% year-over-year. The India growth story combines a massive domestic market (1.4B people, rapidly digitizing), lower engineering costs, and increasing product sophistication.

Actionable Takeaway: For tech professionals, India exposure offers portfolio diversification beyond US tech. Consider India-focused ETFs or ADRs of major Indian tech companies (Infosys, TCS, HCL Tech). For those in leadership roles, India represents both a talent market and a product market—companies establishing R&D centers or go-to-market operations now may have first-mover advantages. Engineers with experience in both markets are increasingly valuable.

Market Summary

Tech Indices:

Notable Movers:

Crypto Corner: Bitcoin stable around $62K; Ethereum $3,400. Institutional adoption continuing with spot ETF inflows remaining strong. Regulatory clarity in the US improving after new SEC guidance.

Bottom Line

The market is maturing in its understanding of AI economics, rewarding infrastructure over applications and profitability over growth at any cost. For tech professionals, this means favoring compensation in cash and liquid equity over high-risk options, building defensible moats if you’re creating products, and considering geographic diversification as markets like India accelerate. The high-interest environment will persist, making financial discipline and profitability more important than ever.

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