The Lindy Effect: Time-Tested Wisdom Over Novelty

The Lindy Effect: Time-Tested Wisdom Over Novelty

The Core Idea

The Lindy Effect is a counterintuitive concept: the future life expectancy of non-perishable things (ideas, technologies, books) is proportional to their current age.

In other words, things that have been around for a long time are likely to be around for much longer, while new things are more likely to disappear quickly.

A book that’s been in print for 100 years is likely to remain relevant for another 100 years. A programming paradigm that’s been used for 50 years will probably be useful for another 50. But the hot new framework released last month? Its expected lifespan is… about a month.

This principle, popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Antifragile, offers a powerful filter for where to invest your time, energy, and attention in a world drowning in novelty.

Origins and Context

The concept emerged from observations about Broadway shows in the 1960s: a show that had been running for 100 days was likely to run another 100 days, while one that opened yesterday might close next week. The name “Lindy” comes from Lindy’s delicatessen in New York, where comedians would gather and discuss which acts would last.

Mathematician Benoît Mandelbrot formalized the mathematical underpinning, and Taleb extended it to ideas, technologies, and knowledge itself.

Critical distinction: The Lindy Effect applies only to non-perishable things—ideas, technologies, institutions, books. It doesn’t apply to living organisms (humans don’t become more likely to live longer the older they get; quite the opposite).

Why It Works: Time as a Filter

Time is the ultimate stress test. Ideas and technologies that survive decades do so because they’ve been exposed to countless challenges, criticisms, refutations, and alternatives—and withstood them all.

Consider programming languages:

This isn’t about age bias—it’s about survival bias as signal. Old things survived because they work across different contexts, cultures, and use cases. New things haven’t been tested yet.

Practical Applications for Principal Engineers

1. Technology Investment Decisions

Scenario: Choosing between established and novel technologies for a critical system

Lindy Lens:

Application: For mission-critical systems with 10+ year horizons, favor technologies with 10+ year track records. The newer technology must offer dramatic advantages to justify the higher risk.

2. Learning Strategy

The Problem: Infinite learning options, finite time. What should a principal engineer master?

Lindy-Guided Learning Hierarchy:

Tier 1 - Timeless (50+ years, highest ROI):

Tier 2 - Durable (10-25 years, high ROI):

Tier 3 - Contemporary (5-10 years, medium ROI):

Tier 4 - Emerging (<5 years, speculative ROI):

Strategy: Invest 60% in Tier 1-2, 30% in Tier 3, 10% in Tier 4. Master the timeless before chasing the trendy.

3. Career Development

Lindy Skills for Technical Leaders:

High Lindy (durable across decades):

Low Lindy (tool/trend-dependent):

Insight: Invest heavily in high-Lindy skills. They compound across your entire career and transfer across contexts. Low-Lindy skills have their place (you need to deliver today), but don’t mistake proficiency in the hot framework for durable expertise.

4. Architectural Principles

Lindy-Tested Architecture Wisdom:

Survived decades:

Recently popular (jury still out):

Application: When designing systems intended to last 10+ years, lean heavily on principles with 20+ year track records. Experiment with newer patterns, but don’t bet the company on them.

The Lindy Effect and Wisdom Literature

Philosophy and Self-Development:

Books that have survived centuries offer higher signal-to-noise ratio than this month’s bestseller. Why?

High Lindy Reading:

Contrast with: Self-help bestseller from 2024 (expected lifespan: 1-2 years)

Implication for principal engineers: Read old books. They’ve been debugged by time. The latest productivity hack might work or might be debunked next year. Stoic principles about controlling attention and managing stress? Proven across millennia.

Limitations and Nuances

The Lindy Effect Is Not Universal

Where Lindy doesn’t apply:

Lindy ≠ Optimal

Something surviving doesn’t mean it’s best—it means it’s good enough to persist. TCP/IP has Lindy, but it has known limitations. SQL databases have Lindy, but they’re not ideal for every use case.

The wisdom: Use Lindy for risk assessment, not optimization. Old technologies are lower risk (known failure modes, mature tooling) but may not be optimal for every scenario.

Innovation Still Matters

The Lindy Effect isn’t an argument against innovation—it’s a framework for risk management. New technologies create the next generation of Lindy winners.

Balanced approach:

Living by Lindy: Practical Implementation

1. The 10-Year Rule

Before adopting a new technology for a critical system, ask:

If the technology is younger than 5 years, it needs extraordinary justification.

2. The Reading Filter

For professional development:

For technical skills:

3. The Advice Filter

When receiving career or life advice, weight it by Lindy:

4. Building Your Own Lindy

Create knowledge and systems that could become Lindy:

Reflection Questions

For your current work:

  1. What percentage of your tech stack would you describe as “high Lindy” (10+ years old and proven)?
  2. Are you investing learning time in fundamentals that will be relevant in 20 years, or chasing the latest trends?
  3. When was the last time you read a technical book published before 2000? Before 1990?

For your career:

  1. What skills are you building that will still be valuable in 15 years?
  2. Are you becoming an expert in timeless principles or in transient tools?
  3. What wisdom from experienced engineers have you dismissed as “old-fashioned” that might actually be Lindy-tested truth?

For life:

  1. What books have you read that have been around for 50+ years? 100+ years?
  2. What life advice have you received from multiple older people across different contexts? (That’s Lindy speaking)
  3. Are you optimizing for what’s fashionable or what’s proven to work across time?

Conclusion

In a field obsessed with novelty, the Lindy Effect is a radical idea: old is often better than new, and proven is safer than innovative.

This doesn’t mean never innovate or never try new things. It means calibrating risk appropriately. For critical systems, career-defining skills, and foundational knowledge, favor what’s survived decades of testing. For experiments, side projects, and exploration, embrace the new.

The tech industry suffers from chronic novelty bias—every new framework is “revolutionary,” every new paradigm will “change everything.” Lindy offers an antidote: respect what has survived. The old boring technology stack probably became old because it works. The ancient philosophical text probably survived because it captures something true about human nature.

Time is the ultimate validator. Use it as a filter, and you’ll waste less effort on passing fads and invest more in what endures.

As Taleb writes: “If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years.”

Choose Lindy. Learn the old. Build for longevity. The newest isn’t always the best, but what has endured usually has something to teach.

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